Peak Oil
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Mali replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 4:25am |
 Coolness: 202225 | ahh yes.. Peak Oil
Most of you are informed, but to those that aren't this is for you. If anyone has anything to say related to this subject, awesome go ahead. I know its long .. but I took pieced here and there from the site. [ www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net ] and i draw some pictures!!! Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global “Peak Oil.” Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole. Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up. When we drill oil, the pressure of it being some compact just comes out right away. like so 
But once most of the oil is gone it doesn't shoot out anymore, and we can't get it out cause its so deep so we leave a 3rd of the oil and not use it 
There is a method to put in water with the oil to created pressure again but it costs so much to seperate oil from water. Oil is a finite resource, formed millions of years ago by the compression of billions of tons of animal and plant matter, which collected in pockets under the earth’s surface. In the century or so in which oil has been exploited as an energy source, a great deal of the entire supply has already been extracted. Huge chunk of the oil supply is gone. Theres already a war for oil as we all known. Us Canadians and are fellow Americans, we wont have to suffer too much. Yeah prices will go up but we should have more oil then other countries for a while.. but not for long. Maybe 30..40..50 years.. then things will start to change a bit. Everything needs oil. Are children are screwed! The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. An oil-based economy such as ours doesn't have to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty. Many geologists expect that 2005 will be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza, while estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate "a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007," which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012. We will find ways of using something else, but it will never be as good as it is now. the top-10 oil groups spent about $8bn combined on exploration last year, but this only led to commercial discoveries with a net present value of slightly less than $4bn. The previous two years show similar, though less dramatic, shortfalls. we currently need 83.5 million barrels per day, are projected to need 120 million barrels per day by 2020, and will be losing over 1 million barrels per day of production per year, every year, once we hit the backside of the global oil production curve. The average citizen . . . is led to believe that the United States really has no oil supply problem when oil shales hold "recoverable oil" equal to "more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves." Presumably the United States could tap into this great oil reserve at any time. This is not true at all. All attempts to get this "oil" out of shale have failed economically. "Is the Bush Administration Aware of Peak Oil?" Yes. In late 1999, Dick Cheney stated: By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Nuclear replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 9:29am |
 Coolness: 2604095 | Good pictures! My penis does the same thing every so often... :) |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» neoform replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 9:30am |
 Coolness: 339775 | you're cum is black?
eww. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» regimental911 replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 10:03am |
 Coolness: 134380 | no,but his dick is. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» mtl_mtl replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 1:34pm |
 Coolness: 55610 | i don't put any faith in a theory that uses ms paint for diagrams. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Mico replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 1:45pm |
 Coolness: 150570 | Well even if you don't believe in Child like Diagrams, it doesn't change the fact that it is true.
Everything that Heather was talking about is actually the case and point of what is going on here in North America. Were not going to just "run out", but as it stands, major oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and even Canada have all reached thair "peak", and basically we will NEVER be able to produce the same amount of oil as we did in the 70's (when oil production hit its peak) and now the population and economy is demanding more oil than ever. With that said, our Suburban paradise will soon cease to exist as it is. Actually, speaking of which. If Diagrams don't grease your wheels, perhaps downloading (or purchasing) "End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream"... Maybe that'll get ya' praying. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» neoform replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 2:44pm |
| Coolness: 339775 | Originally posted by REPENTTOKYO...
i don't put any faith in a theory that uses ms paint for diagrams. yeah, i only believe things large corporations with flashing movies and promotional videos with celebrities i know say. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Mico replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 2:53pm |
| Coolness: 150570 | If your not gonna believe cute-little diagrams, or flashy propaganda movies made by large corporations, what can you believe?
Regardless, this is a reality. And no matter what your sources are, it's the truth -or something like it. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» mtl_mtl replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 4:36pm |
| Coolness: 55610 | oil prices were way higher in the 70's than they are now. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» neoform replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 6:05pm |
| Coolness: 339775 | so were your moms breasts. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» mtl_mtl replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 6:18pm |
| Coolness: 55610 | thats pretty low man. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» neoform replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 6:19pm |
| Coolness: 339775 | no, THEY'RE low.
*knee slapper* |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Mico replied on Fri May 27, 2005 @ 6:49pm |
| Coolness: 150570 | LMFAO! |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Mali replied on Mon May 30, 2005 @ 9:38pm |
| Coolness: 202225 | Economy has one fundamental, oil. Oil goes up, so does inflation (which eventually brings everything up in price). A lot of people will just say "well, so what? I'll just ride my bike to work instead of using the car". But the problem is much worse than that. Observe this scenario:
Oil goes up in price 400%. Plastic is made out of oil. Wires are insulated with plastic. The wires used on a farm go up in price 400%. The farmer has to cover his costs, so he inreases the cost of his produce. Price increase ..1. The produce gets bought by a distribution company, that company drives the produce in trucks to a processing plant. Trucks need gas, which comes from oil. That gas goes up 400%. The distributor needs to cover its costs, so it increases the price of the produce. Price increase ..2. The processing plant uses large machines to quickly package the produce. These machines need lubricants in order to operate. Lubricants are made out of oil. Distributor covers costs, makes consumers pay, price increase ..3. Distributor ships produce off to store in trucks. Trucks need gas. Price increase ..4. So oil goes up in price 400%, and food goes up 1600%. This scenario applies to every industry, every market, every economy. All this pressure on the economy suddenly makes it implode, and voila, the next great depression. When will oil go up 400%? 4 or 5 years probally. Hope you got money saved up! |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» nothingnopenope replied on Tue May 31, 2005 @ 2:03am |
 Coolness: 201335 | heather stop drinking my coffee |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Atrix replied on Tue May 31, 2005 @ 8:17am |
 Coolness: 55400 | I don't know...I think the oil reserve depletion is a debatable point. Some of my college buddies are geological engineers (minerals and mining) and my alma mater (Queen's) has a solid rep as a geology and mining school. They maintain that oil wells are very hard to drain and that oil production in the earth is kind of like sweat glands on a person: It keeps sweating the black shit out. Geothermic pressure squeezes sedimentary organic compounds (not just dinosaurs!) eventually turning them into crude fossil fuel so the whole "running out" scenario is an illusioin created by those big bad oil companies. Adding water to the crude to get the last 1/3 of oil is actually very cheap as oil and water cannot physically mix, and oil rises to the top.
Of course, I have no other support for their point of view, so let's just assume they're wrong and we are depleting our oil supply at the rate described above. Personally, I couldn't care less if we ran out of juice and Western Civ collapsed. Frankly, we deserve it for our virus-like consumption of everything. I have my eye on the global climate. If we keep on this course, the Earth will change the terms of our lease and evict our asses by making this planet uninhabitable for homo sapiens. It's already started, and it will be far more serious than simply having our soccer moms running out of gas on the way to Loblaws. Look at the global weather. In the last year we have seen a rise in natural disasters that, had this happened 2500 years ago, would have made the Old Testament. El Nino was like the small cough that leads into full-blown pnemonia due to AIDS; it's a symptom of a larger disease. The beautiful thing is that Earth will go on without us and life will return. This planet has had the life knocked out of it by asteroids, volcanic super-erruptions, and global earthquakes more than a few times before, and Life continued. Ironically I suspect that our major urban centres will be new oil fields in a few million years. There's more at stake than simply money. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» DonLouis replied on Tue May 31, 2005 @ 8:24am |
 Coolness: 84195 | OK Lets say theres a NEW ENERGY SOURCE.
for example, dihydrogen what does happen? |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Atrix replied on Tue May 31, 2005 @ 9:22am |
| Coolness: 55400 | The alternative sources are a great concept, but getting western civ into these fuels is like getting a heroin addict to drop H for methodone. Humans are creatures of habit, and sometimes they'd rather kill themselves than change their lifestyle.
Hydrogen cell technology is just out of reach (hydrogen needed to combust in an engine will only produce water as a byproduct, but our containment technology is not there yet. In order to keep H2 in a liquid fuel form you need to keep it at a temp of -250C, which isn't going to happen off a 9V battery. The other option is to keep it in gas form, but then you run the risk of pulling a Hindenburg (Boom). I've seen some alternative fuel cells that work, like magnesium plates in salt water. A lunch box sized unit could power your stereo and hotplates for a picnic. A unit the size of a stove could power your house for a long weekend. It recharges itself when not in use and the only byproduct is milk of magnesia which is not only drinkable, it's good for your stomach. No noise, not heat, no waste. But it's still in development with only working prototypes right now. If someone comes up with a solution to this, they'd literally save the world. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Mali replied on Tue May 31, 2005 @ 9:23am |
| Coolness: 202225 | Oil and water cant mix completly but have you ever put oil in water.. some of the water changes and that oil is no good until you separete it. Not many companies want to spend more to get all the oil |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» MURDOCK_ROCK replied on Tue May 31, 2005 @ 1:16pm |
 Coolness: 83985 | OIL IS FUCKIN' WHACK!!!
the world only needs a fraction of what we acctually use. and the more we use it the more we are contibuting to global warming which is a much more serious problem. all that bullshit is propaganda brought to you by the forces that control the oil. by 2020 we are gunna have much worse problems on our hands than lack of oil... and most of these problems are caused by oil. nitrogen fuel cells can power a combustable engines with just as much power and torque at a much lower cost and emit nothing but water vapour back into the environment (and yes this technology is READY NOW and will be more readily available by the end of decade. germany has already got them on the roads and the only reason we don't got em here yet is that there is still nowhere to feul up, in other words we just need nitrogen gas stations like the ones in germany). whereas if we keep using fosil fuels... the temperature of our oceans will keep rising untill the only sea life that can sustain it self are the fuckin' JELLY FISH and some weird ass invertabrates that have no nutritional value. life started in the ocean... if it can't survive in the ocean, we don't got very good chances on the land. in other words... if we keep using fosil feuls there is a good chance we are eventually gunna break our food chain AND DESTROY ALL HUMAN EXISTANCE... at least as we know it. so ya miss pie hole... i personally believe that the whole water and oil thing should be put to bed... as it doesn't make the oil any safer for the environment and the oil companys just want money anyway so they are only gunna do whats cheapest. in this case... its KILLING US ALL SLOWLY!! |
Peak Oil
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