Asteroid Has A 1 In 45,000 Chance Of Hitting Earth On 13 April 2036
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» m3lang3 a répondu le Sat 17 Feb, 2007 @ 9:16pm |
 Coolness: 82510 | [ space.newscientist.com ]
Asteroid threat demands response, experts warn * 16:26 17 February 2007 * [ NewScientist.com ] news service * Ivan Semeniuk, San Francisco Kamchatkans and Venezuelans beware. A 20-million-tonne asteroid could be heading your way. Californians have even more reason to worry - the asteroid is more likely to hit the Pacific Ocean, triggering a tsunami that could devastate the west coast of North America. These are among the scenarios projected for asteroid Apophis, which researchers now say has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting Earth on 13 April 2036. Calculations show it would strike somewhere along a narrow track that stretches eastward from Siberia to the west coast of Africa. Compared to earlier estimates, the new figure represents a further reduction in the threat posed by Apophis (see Risk of asteroid smashing into Earth reduced). But the threat is real enough, experts argue, to merit a United Nations protocol for dealing with the problem. "Someone will have to make a decision," says Russell Schweickart, a former Apollo astronaut and founder of the Association of Space Explorers. Because any plan for deflecting the asteroid away from Earth will need to be implemented well before an impact site is precisely known, he says, "this is inherently going to be an international decision". Sky surveys Beginning in the next few months, Schweickart's group will host a series of meetings to provide the UN with a 'decision process' for assessing and acting on the hazard posed by Apophis and other near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). A draft document ready for consideration by the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is expected by 2009. During the past 10 years, a concerted search effort by astronomers has led to the detection of an estimated 90% of the asteroids that could threaten Earth with devastation on a global scale. In the coming decade, a next-generation search is likely to uncover most of the remaining global hazards, as well as many more smaller asteroids, like the 250-metre-wide Apophis, that could threaten millions of lives and cause significant damage on a regional scale. Currently, NASA's Near Earth Object programme lists 127 objects as potential impact risks. By 2020, Schweickart predicts, the list could number in the thousands. Because of the uncertainties involved in calculating asteroid trajectories, many will initially appear to have a small but real chance of hitting Earth in the next few decades. Too late In most cases, those threats will vanish with additional observations that will narrow the range of possible trajectories. However, in some cases the threat of an impact could persist long enough to require action. "If you wait to be certain, it could be too late," says Schweickart. Schweickart and others discussed options for dealing with Apophis and other asteroid risks at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco, California, US. "Apophis forces us to think about what we might do if [an impact threat] reaches our threshold of pain," say Ed Lu of NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, US. Lu, who led the discussion on asteroid deflection, warned that "simple methods are not so simple" when it comes to moving the mountain-sized chunks of rock that hurtle through our local region of the solar system. Among the least desirable options is the use of a nuclear warhead to blow up an approaching asteroid. "You could make life a lot worse," says Lu, by turning one potential impactor into many. 'Reshaping the solar system' Lu's favoured option is called a gravitational tractor. It involves placing a relatively massive spacecraft near enough to an approaching asteroid to shift its trajectory using only the minuscule force of gravity between the two objects. Although the method requires significant lead time and will not work in all cases, it has the advantage of controlling a hazardous object "in one piece", say Lu. According to Lu, Apophis is particularly amenable to this form of manoeuvring. Prior to its threatening approach in 2036, the asteroid will sweep past Earth in the spring of 2029. Any change in the asteroid's position before this will be greatly magnified by the 2029 encounter, which could, in turn, eliminate the chance of an impact in 2036. Such a mission could succeed with a 1-metric-tonne spacecraft arriving at Apophis as late as 2027, says Schweickart, who envisions a protocol that would allow the UN to 'contract' the world's space agencies to remove the threat. "We can't prevent a hurricane," says Schweickart. "But we can prevent an asteroid impact by slightly reshaping the solar system to ensure the survival of life on Earth." |
| I'm feeling recovering right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» DCRn a répondu le Mon 19 Feb, 2007 @ 8:02am |
 Coolness: 158325 | S'okay, the end of days is in 2012 anyway.
I think it's time we gave Bruce Willis (and Aerosmith) a call... |
| I'm feeling storming the gate right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» AlienZeD a répondu le Mon 19 Feb, 2007 @ 10:58am |
 Coolness: 509650 | I was just going to post this. We're dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo |
| I'm feeling hungry, like a fox! right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» cvxn a répondu le Mon 19 Feb, 2007 @ 12:54pm |
 Coolness: 178735 | Hmm, I think there are things you just cannot win against.
Humanity trying to control space... A bit of a superiority complex n'ah? |
| I'm feeling the dancing void right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» m3lang3 a répondu le Mon 19 Feb, 2007 @ 1:51pm |
| Coolness: 82510 | If humanity doesn't, who will? |
| I'm feeling not all there right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» cvxn a répondu le Mon 19 Feb, 2007 @ 3:47pm |
| Coolness: 178735 | The cockroaches! |
| I'm feeling the dancing void right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Screwhead a répondu le Mon 19 Feb, 2007 @ 5:34pm |
 Coolness: 685680 | Can't happen soon enough. |
| I'm feeling uranus right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» rave_dolphin a répondu le Tue 20 Feb, 2007 @ 10:39am |
 Coolness: 86980 | bah ... we're better than rats on a survival scale, so we might lose a couple millions on the way, but I'm not affraid for humanity |
| I'm feeling ravy right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» No_Comply a répondu le Wed 21 Feb, 2007 @ 10:43am |
 Coolness: 85025 | Hmmm 2036, ill be 55... long enough, bring on the space rock of doom. |
| I'm feeling not water soluable right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Trey a répondu le Wed 21 Feb, 2007 @ 12:09pm |
 Coolness: 102855 | Originally Posted By BAAMUTH
bah ... we're better than rats on a survival scale, so we might lose a couple millions on the way, but I'm not affraid for humanity not true. we only have been on Earth for what 200 000 years at most. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» rave_dolphin a répondu le Wed 21 Feb, 2007 @ 1:27pm |
| Coolness: 86980 | true, we're a pretty new species on the evolution scale, but how does it affects our survivability as a group ? |
| I'm feeling plain happy right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Kishmay_Pinas a répondu le Wed 21 Feb, 2007 @ 7:50pm |
 Coolness: 103345 | and dinosaur farts caused the whole in the ozone layer |
| I'm feeling protectin my balls right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Trey a répondu le Wed 21 Feb, 2007 @ 8:29pm |
| Coolness: 102855 | Originally Posted By BAAMUTH
true, we're a pretty new species on the evolution scale, but how does it affects our survivability as a group ? Are you fucking serious? you don't know anything do you? If humanity is going the way it is going now, we will be in a Hell hole of a planet. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» rave_dolphin a répondu le Thu 22 Feb, 2007 @ 1:02pm |
| Coolness: 86980 | That, or I know more than you ... Read NASA reports, man will be walking on Mars pretty soon (within a couple decades). They are having a space station built on the moon to refuel the spacecrafts, which don't need that much fuel to travel once they left Earth's attraction field. Before our planet becomes a "hell hole", humanity will already inhabts the moon, and probably Mars also. Not to say that there will still be people living in some kinds of bunkers in here.
As I said, we can lose a couple millions or billions of people on the way, and the lifestyle will be totally different but I'm not affraid for humanity ! |
| I'm feeling plain happy right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Deadfunk a répondu le Thu 22 Feb, 2007 @ 4:02pm |
 Coolness: 153095 | baamuth, there are 2 living spiecies who can resist a direct atomic explosion, cockroaches wich can resist 900 000 more times radiation than us, and rats, wich are too numberous and small so they can hide to places, wich have not been killed by nuclar atacks, they were the 2 species found on the site of heroshima
and the other place (nagano i think) where atom bombs exploded, and its has been tested ... so we are really weak, rats will survive more than us and about that mars thing, if we go to mars and moon, be sure rats will be there too! |
| I'm feeling angelkoreish x 10000 right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» rave_dolphin a répondu le Thu 22 Feb, 2007 @ 5:04pm |
| Coolness: 86980 | Deadfunk, you are right that physically, humans are weak. Our strenght reside in the fact we can adapt to any environment, and adapt any environment to us. More so, it resides in the fact that as the ants, we can work together for a common goal.
Some examples of our greatness: We made suits in which we can stand beside a lava slide for minutes, or live through the open space, the big nothing (try to find any animal able of that). We produced farming, freezing, and transportation technology which enables us to feed ourselves easily even in areas where there should be awful food shortage (when is the last time you saw a field, a cow or a fruit tree in Montreal ?). We have no fur, yet we we live in Quebec ! We cannot stand an atomic explosion, but we can build shelters to protect ourselves ... I think I made my point. And the more time goes, the fastest we can adapt, due to communication technology who enables brains from all over the globe to join together and find solutions. When a problem is discovered, within a day, a team is formed to find a solution. Individually speaking we are weak, but if you compare species to species, we rock ! |
| I'm feeling plain happy right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» Trey a répondu le Thu 22 Feb, 2007 @ 9:48pm |
| Coolness: 102855 | Originally Posted By BAAMUTH
That, or I know more than you ... HAHA  sure you do, sure you do. You're an idealist and naive. I can't believe you argue the greatness of humanity by compaing us to animal. |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» rave_dolphin a répondu le Fri 23 Feb, 2007 @ 10:30am |
| Coolness: 86980 | Some people always see the glass half empty, and some other half full ... that's all I have to add. |
| I'm feeling plain happy right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» DCRn a répondu le Fri 23 Feb, 2007 @ 10:38am |
| Coolness: 158325 | Originally Posted By DEADFUNK
and the other place (nagano i think) where atom bombs exploded, and its has been tested ... I'm sure the fine people of Nagano might be upset that you confuse them with Nagasaki. Nagano had the winter olympics. :D |
| I'm feeling shoggothy right now.. | |
| Good [+1]Toggle ReplyLink» cvxn a répondu le Sat 24 Feb, 2007 @ 10:32am |
| Coolness: 178735 | lol
***Before our planet becomes a "hell hole", humanity will already inhabts the moon, and probably Mars also.*** It takes a very long time to terraform a planet... If that is possible in the first place. I think we'll be doomed before that. Humans vs cockroaches.. My bet on the cockroaches, seriously. |
| I'm feeling the dancing void right now.. | |
Asteroid Has A 1 In 45,000 Chance Of Hitting Earth On 13 April 2036
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