PLAN COLOMBIA - THE SEQUEL

American Aid Has Produced Some Results In Colombia. That Is One Reason Why
It Is Turning Into A Long-Term Commitment

Bogota - It is not quite Afghanistan, but outside that country and the
Middle East, it is the American's most expensive foreign entanglement.
Since 2000, under an aid programme known as "Plan Colombia", the United
States has pumped in some $2.4 billion in military and economic aid, aimed
at fighting drugs and the rebel armies that feed upon them. Under Alvaro
Uribe, a stern Liberal who took office as Colombia's president a year ago,
this aid has started to show results.

That may be one reason why Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, this
week became the latest in a string of senior American officials who have
recently visited Bogota. Mr Rurnsfeld declared Colombia to be "half-way
along and making good progress" in its efforts to impose security. America
sees Mr Uribe as a dose ally. George Bush has asked Congress for $688m more
for Colombia in fiscal year 2003-04. This week, he announced the resumption
of a policy under which American spy planes will help Colombia spot and
shoot down drug planes. (The policy was suspended in 20oi after an American
missionary and her baby were killed when their plane was downed in Peru.)

Most Colombians welcome American aid, though many would like it to focus
less on drugs. But it remains controversial in the United States and,
officials have recently stressed, it is not open-ended. How soon could the
superpower pull back from Colombia without undoing much of what has been
achieved?

Colombia is the source of some 70% Of the world's cocaine, and much heroin.
Plan Colombia, drawn up by the governments of Andres Pastrana, Mr Uribe's
predecessor, and Bill Clinton, was aimed at wiping out that drug
production. The hope was that this would squeeze the incomes of left-wing
guerrillas and rightwing paramilitary vigilantes, encouraging them to make
peace. After peace talks with the FARC, the largest guerrilla group,
collapsed last year, Mr Bush allowed the aid to be used directly against
the rebels, too.

The bulk of the American money has gone on training and equipping with 72
helicopters (14 Blackhawks and 58 Hueys) a new anti-drugs brigade of the
Colombian army. Just keeping this going costs $150m a year; another $80rn
goes on deploying 21 crop-dusting aircraft to dump weedkiller on drug
crops. The helicopters and the crop-sprayers are flown by American pilots
hired by the State Department. In parallel, Colombia has made its own
efforts to strengthen its army and police.

Mr Uribe is now claiming some successes: according to a UN survey, coca
cultivation was cut by 30% in 2002, to 102,000 hectares (252,000 acres),
reversing an upward trend between 1995 and 2001. Cultivation of opium
poppies is also down. American officials say that they hope that coca will
be reduced to around 30,000 hectares and poppies to 5,000 hectares by 2006.
Mr Uribe also points to a fall in kidnapping, murders and guerrilla sabotage.

These achievements remain fragile. The FARC is on the defensive, but none
of its leaders has been captured or killed. Mr Uribe last week called on
his generals to work harder, saying that those who did not get results
should resign. Many security analysts believe that it will take several
years of effort for Colombia's government to impose its authority on
rebel-held areas. And drug production is likely to shift to neighbouring
countries.

Plan Colombia is due to end in 2005, after which American officials expect
aid to decline. One thing standing in the way of further aid is an impasse
over the international Criminal Court, which Colombia supports and the
United States opposes. In July Mr Bush froze military aid to Colombia,
demanding that Mr Uribe's government sign an "Article 98 agreement" aimed
at exempting American citizens in Colombia from the Court's jurisdiction.
This Colombia refuses to do.

Colombian officials, who are routinely criticised by Americans for failing
to uphold human rights, are puzzled by the Bush administration's stance.
They point out that a bilateral agreement of 1962 gives legal immunity to
American military and civilian advisers in Colombia. So far, only $5m in
military aid has been frozen by the United States. According to a State
Department source, Colombia could forfeit up to $140m next year, including
money to equip a new, American trained, army battalion to protect the
country's main oil pipeline against guerrilla sabotage. However, Luis
Alberto Moreno, Colombia's ambassador in Washington, said last week that
the two countries are "very close to a solution" on the issue.

A second hurdle is the increasingly partisan nature of the debate about
Colombia in Washington. Opponents have long questioned aid to Colombia's
armed forces, some of whose officers collude with the paramilitaries. A
vocal group of Democrats in the House of Representatives recently tried,
but failed, to axe $73m in aid.

Perhaps because of these hurdles, officials in both countries are starting
to talk about a Plan Colombia TWO. This would be a smaller, leaner version,
focusing on counter-terrorism, intelligence and antikidnapping activities.
American officials talk of Colombia taking up more of the burden of helping
itself.

That hope may be something of an illusion. in a report last month, the
American Congress's General Accounting Office concluded that annual aid of
at least $230m would be needed beyond 2005 to keep the drug war ticking
over. Mr Uribe has already increased taxes, and will find it hard to raise
them much higher. Even if he did, Colombia's army and police are hampered
by a lack of trained pilots and maintenance staff. The Pentagon has spent
$20M On training pilots and ground staff for the Hueys. But the first batch
Of 117 Pilots will not complete basic training until December 2004.

All of this suggests that even after Plan Colombia ends in 2005, Americans
are unlikely to cut and run, especially while Mr Uribe and Mr Bush remain
in office. "Success tends to breed success. No artificial deadline will
govern here," says an aide to a senior Republican in Congress. Adam Isacson
of the Centre for International Policy, a Washington group which opposes
military aid to Colombia, says that with its costly wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, America cannot afford to spend $750m a year with no end in
sight. "Yet there's still going to be this inexorable pull," he admits.