THE CRIME RATE AND PRISON NUMBERS

The FBI issued its annual report on crime the other day, based on
preliminary figures reported to police in 1999. For the eighth
straight year, crime dropped, with serious crime down 7 percent.

This comes just a few weeks after the Justice Department announced
that the nation's prison population last year increased by 1,122
inmates a week, bringing the total number of men and women behind bars
to a record 1.86 million. Coincidence? Perhaps, but common sense tells
us that if fewer criminals are out and about, there won't be as many
of them committing crimes.

Some point to changing demographics and our booming economy as an
important factor in the crime decline. The Wall Street Journal even
reported on employers offering job opportunities to ex-felons in
unprecedented numbers. But there are still too many criminals on the
streets who have no intention of taking part in the prosperity. Some
rob businesses that have ``help wanted'' signs posted outside. For
them, jail is the only answer.

That the nation's prison population will soon reach 2 million - a
quadrupling from 20 years ago - has many social activists using the
term ``prison-industrial complex.'' But prisons are a poor investment
as far as economic development is concerned. Now as always, jails are
a necessary evil with a good track record of keeping criminals off the
street.

And contrary to a popularly held belief, the growth in state prison
populations is in violent offenders, not drug violators. In 1997,
Justice Department statistician Allen J. Beck reminded us that ``the
prison population growth in the 1990s has been primarily driven by the
increasing lengths of stay - fewer inmates leaving,'' a result of
increased time served, particularly for violent crimes, tougher parole
boards and longer minimum sentences.

Organizations like the The Sentencing Project, a private group that
advocates alternatives to imprisonment, point out the contrasting
trends of decreasing crime and increasing prison population and
contend there should be fewer people incarcerated. Yes, there could be
more drug treatment and alternative sentencing for some nonviolent
offenders, but there are plenty of habitual, incorrigible criminals
who need to be put away.

Too, more than 10 million crimes are still reported every year - a
number that would make our grandparents wince. There may be a light at
the end of the tunnel in our war on crime, but it is still very far
away.