AFGHANISTAN'S TURMOIL GOES UNNOTICED

Dead soldiers. Surprise attacks by Islamic fundamentalists. Revenge
killings of citizens who support the new foreign-backed authority. A
resurgence by followers of the old regime.

This fresh hell is not Iraq, but Afghanistan, a burnt-out shell of a
country whose rough terrain and borderline anarchy created the climate
for al-Qaida terrorism to spread like toxic mold.

Almost two years ago, words such as "Taliban," "burqa," and even
"Osama bin Laden" were on everyone's lips. But the manufactured ruckus
over ousting Iraq's Saddam Hussein meant that in the age of short
attention spans and concentrated media coverage, the real conundrum of
Afghanistan was largely forgotten.

Since Afghanistan has slipped from the front page, many folks think
we've solved its problems. Wrong. After coalition forces dismantled
the Taliban in Kabul and pushed it to remote parts of the country,
Afghanistan fell through the cracks, despite the presence of 11,500
U.S. and coalition troops.

But things are falling apart, the center is not holding in
Afghanistan. Three factors - two bad, one good - merit immediate attention.

First, it's become crystal clear that we never defeated the Taliban.
In a war where combatants don't wear uniforms, many simply melted away
and have lived to blight another day. Rather than random, the Taliban
and al-Qaida attacks appear to be organized.

More than 90 people have been killed in the past week, the worst spate
of violence since the American invasion. This includes a raid from
neighboring Pakistan reportedly carried out by more than 200 Taliban
guerrillas. Targets have included police stations, buses and aid
organizations.

The Taliban has issued a call for holy war that led to the shooting
deaths of three senior Muslim clerics who had advocated supporting
foreign troops. Another cleric narrowly escaped murder.

Second, despite all the hoopla in the West, Afghan President Hamid
Karzai has never been much more than the mayor of Kabul. Opium-growing
warlords control the rest of Afghanistan, and America "is directly
responsible for their resurgence," a Pentagon South Asia expert told
me. In the coalition's quest to purge Afghanistan of the Taliban, "we
allowed them to survive because we were using them to eradicate
al-Qaida," he said.

In their fiefdoms, warlords have begun to cultivate opium in massive
quantities, despite a ban last year from Karzai's government.
According to Kemal Kurspahic, spokesman for the United Nations Office
on Drugs and Crime, "Afghanistan is by far the largest producer of
opiates in the world. Despite the ban, last year it exported 3,400
metric tons of opium, about 80 percent of the world total." Much of
that ends up being sold as heroin on American and European street corners.

While Western troops have been in charge of security in Afghanistan,
the military doesn't deal directly with drug production. And poppies
are a lucrative crop for Afghan farmers with few options. Ironically,
the war against drugs in America drives up street prices and hence
profits, making the war against drugs in Afghanistan all the more difficult.

"The United Nations is helping establish a drug control agency,"
Kurspahic said, "but it will only be as effective as the law
enforcement and security capacities." To make any difference, Karzai's
government needs to control the whole country.

Third, in a positive step, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has
assumed command of the international force in Afghanistan, a thorny
and thankless task. Leading an Asian effort will lend new relevance to
a Cold War-era alliance. And the organization has experience in
running peace operations.

With the U.S. military stretched thin, NATO can help provide greater
numbers of troops. But even NATO might not be able to supply enough
soldiers to secure this beleaguered country.

President Bush recently pledged $1 billion in assistance to
Afghanistan. But in light of a Taliban resurgence, a government that
controls only Kabul, and a colossal trade in illegal drugs, American
money without any real security or a proper spending plan won't be
enough.

Even with NATO leading the way, more U.S. troops will likely be needed
to vanquish the Taliban and al-Qaida. Unfortunately, Americans should
be prepared to have the Afghanistan mess on our hands for decades to
come.