Once-Taboo Topic Gains Ground in Nation Exhausted by Crime War

SURGING VIOLENCE SPURS TALK OF LEGALIZING DRUGS

MEXICO CITY - A debate about legalizing marijuana and possibly other
drugs -- once a taboo suggestion -- is percolating in Mexico, a
nation exhausted by runaway violence and a deadly drug war.

The debate is only likely to grow more animated if Californians
approve an initiative on Nov. 2 to legalize marijuana for
recreational use in their state.

Mexicans are keeping a close eye on the vote, seeing it as a bellwether.

"If they vote 'yes' to approve the full legalization of marijuana, I
think it will have a radical impact in Mexico," said Jorge Hernandez
Tinajero, a political scientist at the National Autonomous University.

Discussion about legalization flew onto the agenda last month, the
outcome of President Felipe Calderon's pressing need to win more
public support for waging war against criminal organizations
profiting hugely from drug trafficking.

As he held a series of open forums with politicians and civic leaders
about faltering security, Calderon suddenly found himself amid a
groundswell of suggestions that legalization -- which he described as
"absurd" -- should be considered.

Among those throwing their weight behind legalization was former
President Vicente Fox, a member of Calderon's own conservative
National Action Party.

"We should consider legalizing the production, distribution and sale
of drugs," Fox wrote on his blog during the series of forums.

"Legalizing in this sense does not mean that drugs are good or don't
hurt those who consume. Rather, we have to see it as a strategy to
strike and break the economic structure that allows the mafias to
generate huge profits in their business."

Calderon immediately said Mexico couldn't act on its own to legalize.

"If drugs are not legalized in the world, or if drugs are not
legalized at least in the United States, this is simply absurd,
because the price of drugs is not determined in Mexico. The price of
drugs is determined by consumers in Los Angeles, or in New York, or
in Chicago or Texas," he said.

Such public debate would have been largely unthinkable a few years
ago. Since Calderon came to office in late 2006, however, a national
gloom has descended on Mexico from unending cartel violence and a
death toll topping 28,000. The grim mood has provided fertile ground
for public figures who think that legalization would undercut the
power of the drug cartels.

Among them are business tycoons such as billionaire Ricardo Salinas
Pliego, who controls broadcaster TV Azteca, and retailer Grupo Elektra.

With his own pro-legalization statement, Fox aligned with another
former president, Ernesto Zedillo, who suggested last year that
prohibition isn't working.

Still, several analysts said debate about legalization -- coming most
strongly from the political left -- was an attempt to needle Calderon
as much as an exploration of whether legalization is feasible.

Hernandez Tinajero said he thinks that Mexican society may not be
ready for such moves, but that the California initiative on marijuana
would impel further debate.

"Whatever the result may be, it will have a positive impact on
Mexico," he said, and give way to "a far more serious discussion."

Experts said they can't fully weigh arguments about the impact that
legalization of marijuana in California might have on this country of
111 million, or whether steps toward legalization here would weaken
drug syndicates.

That's because so little is known publicly about the revenue streams
of cartels, the extent of production of marijuana, crystal meth and
heroin, and the range of revenue from other criminal enterprises.

Counternarcotics officials say several Mexican cartels, particularly
the Familia Michoacana, are deeply involved in marijuana production
and sales in California.

Alex Kreit, an expert on drug law at the Thomas Jefferson School of
Law in San Diego, said the fallout from Proposition 19, whichever way
voters lean, might not be immediate.

Opinion polls show a near toss-up over whether voters will approve or
reject it.

If the initiative passes, it would have an impact only in localities
that take steps to permit the cultivation, distribution and sale of
marijuana, he said.

"If this passes, it doesn't mean that all of a sudden that people who
are growing marijuana in large amounts are going to be doing so
legally," he said.

If the initiative loses by a large margin, Kreit said, it could "be
the death knell" for legalization. If it goes the other way, it could
'start to create a feeling of inevitability" in the U.S. and Mexico
toward the legalization of marijuana.