RIGHTIST'S HARD LINE APPEALS TO WAR-WEARY COLOMBIANS

BOGOTA, Colombia, May 18 - He has already survived one assassination
attempt this year, so Alvaro Uribe's run for the presidency has been
especially cautious, even in this war-ravaged country. Public appearances
have been minimal, mainly teleconferences with select audiences or low-key
meetings with small groups of businessmen, all confined to this capital city.

It is not an ideal way to campaign.

But Mr. Uribe, an ultraconservative candidate whose promise to crack down
on leftist rebels has resonated with a conflict-weary populace, still holds
a commanding lead in the polls with a week to go before an election that is
being closely watched in Washington. Indeed, Mr. Uribe, a lawyer and expert
horseman from northern Colombia, is expected to receive nearly 50 percent
of the vote in next Sunday's election, 20 percentage points more than his
nearest rival, Horacio Serpa, and nearly the majority needed to avoid a
June 16 runoff.

But while Mr. Uribe will almost surely become the next president, what is
less certain is what effects his policies would have on this country and
what they would mean for the United States, which has provided nearly $2
billion in mostly military aid since 2000.

What Mr. Uribe, 49, a former governor and senator from Antioquia province
province who has completed courses at Harvard and Oxford, prescribes is a
break from the policies of the current president, Andres Pastrana. Mr.
Pastrana, whose peace talks with rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces
of Colombia, or FARC, collapsed earlier this year, is barred under the
Constitution from seeking re-election.

Pledging to become "the first soldier of Colombia" in a campaign against
leftist rebels, Mr. Uribe promises to double the size of the army's combat
force and the police and to organize one million villagers to serve as
informants, some of them armed. He also has cast himself as a corruption
fighter who will free up government funds for his programs.

"We are going to work hard to strengthen the capacity of the state to
protect the citizenry and control the violent ones," Mr. Uribe said
recently, as his heavily protected motorcade sped from a campaign event.
"This is a country that has suffered very much from violence and kidnapping
and we are going to put a stop to this problem."

The United States, he said, will play a central role because Colombia is
counting on military hardware and training so Colombian troops can better
fight the rebels. Currently American aid can only go toward operations to
counter drugs, but the Bush administration is pressing Congress to allow
American-trained soldiers and equipment to be used directly against the
guerrillas.

Mr. Uribe, some American lawmakers believe, is the appropriate caretaker
for that policy. "We feel that he would be an action-type president," said
Representative Cass Ballenger, a North Carolina Republican on the
International Relations Committee. "I think President Pastrana was a heck
of a nice guy. He dedicated himself to making peace, but they took
advantage of him. I don't think Uribe is that kind of guy."

Indeed, Mr. Uribe - whose campaign slogan is "firm hand, big heart" - is
seen as a leader tailor-made for this chaotic country. The rebels, clearly
feeling threatened, carried out a street bombing on April 14 that damaged
Mr. Uribe's passing motorcade, killing four bystanders but leaving him
unscathed.

Mr. Uribe's lead in the polls is a testament to Colombian fatigue with a
grinding 38-year conflict.

Voters seem to be overlooking the fact that Mr. Uribe is an independent
candidate representing the far right in a centrist country where only
Liberal or Conservative party politicians have won national office. Mr.
Uribe and his Colombia First movement have the support of 55 of 102
senators and 97 of 165 representatives, according to a survey of Colombia's
Congress by the University of Los Andes.

Mr. Uribe has mined Colombian frustration for months, criticizing Mr.
Pastrana's peace efforts and harshly denouncing the FARC rebels for
practically every atrocity, like the May 2 rebel rocket attack on a church
that killed 117 civilians. His own personal loss in the conflict - his
father was slain by the guerrillas in 1983 - has also struck a chord.

"This is the first time we Colombians feel there is someone who is going to
give us back what is ours," said Luis Guillermo Henao, 40, a civil engineer
who plans to vote for Mr. Uribe. "Uribe is the response to the crisis."

But Mr. Uribe's ability to deliver on his promises will not be easy.

His scheme to add 50,000 combat troops to the 55,000 the army already has,
along with doubling the size of the National Police to 200,000 officers,
could cost up to $1 billion a year - a heavy increase in a country with an
annual budget of $27 billion.

"Aside from that business over reducing corruption, the president
nearly-elect has not said from where the money will come," Hernando Gomez
Buendia, a leading columnist at Semana magazine, wrote last week.

Mr. Uribe has also worried human rights groups, who believe that his
policies may come at a steep price for Colombia's fragile democracy.

During his governorship of Antioquia from 1995 to 1997, illegal right-wing
paramilitary groups thrived, working with some military units in their
brutal campaign against guerrillas. Two generals in the region - Rito Alejo
del Rio and Fernando Millan - were fired by President Pastrana for rights
abuses, and Mr. del Rio's visa to travel to the United States was canceled.

Yet, Mr. Uribe continues to support Mr. del Rio, having used him as an
adviser on military matters even though the former general is under
investigation in Colombia. In a meeting late last year with Jose Miguel
Vivanco, director of operations in Latin America for Human Rights Watch,
Mr. Uribe also expressed disagreement with Mr. Pastrana's decision to force
out other high-ranking officers who were believed to have ties to the
paramilitaries.

While Mr. Uribe has incorporated into his speeches the need to battle
paramilitaries, Mr. Vivanco said he has doubts about his sincerity. "The
question is," Mr. Vivanco said, "can he convince Colombia and the
international community that he is committed to fighting right-wing
paramilitary groups?"

Mr. Uribe has also faced questions about his past associations. His father
was friendly with Fabio Ochoa, the now-deceased father of three brothers
who were among Colombia's most fearsome drug traffickers a decade ago. His
closest aide during his governorship of Antioquia was Pedro Juan Moreno,
who was investigated by United States officials because his company had
imported into Colombia a suspicious shipment of chemicals that could have
been used for cocaine production.

The candidate said there was nothing inappropriate about these
relationships, noting that Mr. Moreno was never charged and that his
father's friendship with the elder Ochoa was based on mutual love of
horses. "For 30 years," he said, "I have simply been an honest politician."

Mr. Uribe - to most voters viewed as transparent, bookish and earnest about
solving Colombia's myriad problems - hammers home the need to end
corruption and reform government, saying that the money saved would allow
for the construction of schools and improvement of government services.

"The candidacy of Alvaro Uribe has generated enormous expectations," said
Elisabeth Ungar, a political scholar at Los Andes. "I just think it is
going to be very difficult to reach those heights, not just because of
resources - everyone knows the country's difficult situation - but also
because of the political situation."