AS COLOMBIANS GO TO POLLS, THE U.S. WATCHES CLOSELY

BOGOTA, Colombia -- As Colombians go to the polls Sunday, wondering whether
their votes will only widen the country's decades-old conflict, no one will
be watching the outcome more intently than the U.S.

U.S. policy makers, no less than Colombians themselves, are asking whether
victory by frontrunner Alvaro Uribe would bring more death and destruction
to their potentially prosperous Andean nation, plagued by armed
insurrections for 38 years. Mr. Uribe proposes to seize areas now overrun
by heavily armed leftist guerrillas and rightist paramilitaries. To do
that, he would double the size of the military and create civilian militias.

Opposing candidates denounce Mr. Uribe's platform as a prescription for
complete civil war. But polls suggest he will get 49% of the vote, while
his closest competitor in the field of 11 candidates, Horacio Serpa, has
23%. A run-off would be held June 16 if Mr. Uribe fails to garner 50% of
the vote Sunday.

The U.S. has a big stake in the outcome. Presidents Bush and Clinton have
poured more than $1 billion, mainly in military aid, into Colombia's fight
against narcotics trafficking. And more help, including some aimed directly
at fighting insurgents, is moving through the congressional appropriations
pipeline. Colombia is the third-biggest recipient of U.S. foreign aid. The
State Department lists Colombia's three main insurgent forces as terrorist
organizations.

A U.S. Embassy official said Washington is confident it will be able to
work with any of the leading candidates, and that the U.S. expects to
"continue a close bilateral relationship and to increase our support for
Colombia."

But analysts suggest the U.S. isn't so indifferent as to who wins. Though
it has gotten along well with outgoing President Andres Pastrana,
Washington should work even better with Mr. Uribe, says Russell Crandall, a
Colombia specialist at Davidson College in North Carolina. He notes that
the Liberal Party candidate, Mr. Serpa, served in the 1994-98
administration of President Ernesto Samper, whom the U.S. criticized as
weak on drug traffickers.

"When Serpa looked good in the polls, Washington kind of held its nose and
said we'll work with you. It did not bring up the past," he says. "But, now
that the higher-ups are focused on Colombia, they know they won't have to
deal with Serpa. They're very excited to work with Uribe."

Mr. Uribe is also the candidate favored by Wall Street, which views him as
the best hope for ending the armed conflict, even though it wonders how he
will pay for the military effort he's promising.

"He looks more market-friendly and does not want to increase the size of
government," says Luis Oganes, an Andean specialist with Bear Stearns &
Co., Mr. Serpa, he says, is more of a liberal tax-and-spender.

But Congress and the State Department will be watching to ensure that an
Uribe administration is equally tough on both the leftist rebels and the
paramilitaries, says Robin Kirk of the Washington-based Human Rights Watch.
Pending legislation, she says, requires that Colombia "fight all sources of
terror," she says. Bills now in Congress provide funding to train and
deploy troops to protect vital infrastructure, such as oil pipelines and
electric-transmission lines.