PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COULD ALTER BOLIVIA, AND STRAIN TIES WITH U.S.

LA PAZ, Bolivia - Bolivians go to the polls on Sunday with the
possibility of transforming this isolated Andean country, where
frequent uprisings have toppled two presidents in the past two years.

The leading candidate, Evo Morales, an Aymara Indian and an ally of
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, promises to exert greater state
control over natural gas reserves and decriminalize the cultivation
of coca, from which cocaine is made.

Polls have put Mr. Morales five percentage points ahead of the next
contender, Jorge Quiroga, a former president who recommends open
trade to help Bolivia extricate itself from poverty. A third
candidate, Samuel Doria Medina, is a La Paz cement magnate who owns
Bolivia's Burger King restaurants.

A candidate must capture more than 50 percent of the vote to win the
presidency outright. If that does not happen, Bolivia's new Congress
- - all 157 seats in the bicameral legislature are also up for grabs -
will choose between the top finishers.

The system is considered anachronistic and, in theory, an obstacle to
the political ambitions of Mr. Morales, 46, who went from leader of
the coca growers' union to internationally known opponent of
globalization. But political analysts believe it could be politically
calamitous for the Congress not to select Mr. Morales as president if
he wins a plurality.

"If Evo wins by a significant difference, and a significant
difference is 5 percent or above, there is nobody who can take the
presidency away from him," said Eduardo Gamarra, the Bolivian-born
director of Latin American affairs at Florida International
University. But if the margin is tighter, Mr. Gamarra said, Mr.
Quiroga could be chosen.

For the Bush administration, the prospect of Mr. Morales in the
presidency is seen as a potentially serious setback in the war on
drugs, one which could jeopardize hundreds of millions of dollars in
American anti-drug, economic and development aid.

Sean McCormack, a State Department spokesman, told reporters in
Washington on Thursday that the United States would take its time to
evaluate its relationship with Bolivia. "We'll see what policies that
person pursues," he said. "And based on that, we'll make an
evaluation of what kind of relationship we're going to have with that state."

Political analysts say Mr. Morales, an adept campaigner, charged
ahead in part because Mr. Quiroga failed to highlight his
accomplishments as vice president and president, when he helped
strike a trade deal with the United States that has stoked exports.
Mr. Quiroga, an American-educated engineer, left office in 2002 with
a high popularity rating.

Mr. Morales has offered few details about how he would govern. Much
of his campaigning has focused on what he sees as the evils of
capitalism, including the development of Colombia's natural gas
reserves by foreign companies.

"On natural resources," he said in a recent interview, "we are the
owners of this noble land, and it is not possible that they be in the
hands of the transnationals."

Whoever wins will face a divided country in which even the majority
indigenous population appears split. Many radical groups see in Mr.
Morales less an indigenous stalwart than a consummate insider who
could sell them out.

One senator from Mr. Morales's own party, Roman Loayza, said this
week that whoever won would have three months to nationalize the
energy industry and press forward on rewriting the Constitution, or
face crippling protests. "This is not something we are saying just to
the neoliberals, but also to our brother, Evo," he said. "For that
reason, he has to be ready to respond to the people."