POTENTIAL BOLIVIAN 'NIGHTMARE'

The election of Evo Morales, a leftist extremist who began his
political career as the leader of coca growers protesting against
U.S. drug policy, to the presidency of Bolivia by a landslide vote is
a foregone conclusion, although the official results are not yet in.
What is not so certain is whether Mr. Morales, a close friend and
ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and an admirer of Cuban
dictator Fidel Castro, will be, as he foretold, "a nightmare" for the
United States.

Sharing the surprise of political observers who expected him to poll
about 30 percent of the vote, not a majority of over 50 percent, Mr.
Morales has already begun to tone down his anti-American rhetoric.

He appears to have realized that the presidency could prove to be a
nightmare for him. This past week he has been backing away from
campaign promises to nationalize Bolivia's oil and lift restrictions
on the cultivation of coca imposed under a joint Bolivian-U.S. plan
to prevent the production of cocaine. He said that he wanted to work
with the United States on ways to curb drug trafficking and reassured
foreign energy companies that have made huge investments in Bolivia
that he would respect their installations. Washington should do its
utmost to encourage Mr. Morales to adopt moderate policies that will
allow Bolivia to secure the investment it will need to develop its
energy resources for the benefit of the Bolivian people. He has said
that he would welcome good relations with the United States but would
not accept what he described as a "relationship of submission."
Washington has congratulated Mr. Morales on his victory, which was
the polite thing to do. Now care should be taken not to antagonize
him. When Washington criticizes him, his popularity rating goes up.
In an interview that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice gave to CNN,
she put him on notice that U.S.-Bolivia relations will be determined
by the "behavior" of the new government. That is a fair warning .
Meanwhile, Mr. Morales, an Aymara Indian, should be heartily
congratulated for becoming the first Indian to be elected president of Bolivia.

Another achievement should also be taken into consideration. His
victory at the polls was the first time that any presidential
candidate has won outright since democracy was restored 23 years ago.

The Amayra and Quechua Indians make up the majority of the Bolivian
population but, in President-elect Morales' own words, they have been
"the most disdained, discriminated against." Living up to the
expectations of the majority of Bolivians, who up to now have had
little or no say in the government of their own country, will be an
awesome challenge.

It could prove to be a nightmare for Evo Morales - and, of course,
Bolivia, if he fails.