MORALES' PROMISES COULD HOLD SEEDS OF HIS OWN DOWNFALL

Evo Morales is welcomed to Morochata like an ancient conquering hero.

Leaders from the small potato-farming community, some 50km north-west
of Cochabamba in the Bolivian highlands, anoint him with mounds of
confetti that cling to his thatch of black hair. Villagers hang
garlands of flowers, potatoes, beans and coca leaves around his neck.
Crowds throng his route through the town, cheering, setting off
home-made fireworks and jostling to be near him.

Thousands have gathered in the main square to listen to a speech by
the man who in 10 years has brought his radical Movement to Socialism
(MAS) to the brink of power. "In the 1940s, your grandfathers here
kicked out the landowners," Mr Morales tells them. "Today, the new
landowners are transnational companies that control our gas, oil and
forests. We will govern as owners of our land, and nationalise our
natural resources." The crowd responds with wild applause.

The campaign pledges may come to haunt Mr Morales if, as most polls
suggest, he wins the presidential race on December 18.

The high expectations his candidacy has created in towns such as
Morochata could threaten his ability to govern.

Mr Morales probably has a better chance of securing short-term social
peace in the deeply divided country than either of his main opponents
- - Jorge Quiroga, the conservative former president, or Samuel Doria
Medina, a politically inexperienced cement magnate.

However, if he wins Mr Morales may struggle to buck the recent trend
of short-lived presidencies: heads of state have on average lasted
little more than a year in office this century.

That is mainly because in the past five years the street has become
Bolivia's fourth arm of government. Mass protests - usually by
radical indigenous groups - have toppled two presidents and forced
out foreign investors. The main demands of protests this year have
been nationalisation of gas and an assembly to rewrite the constitution.

In itself, a Morales victory would not satisfy these demands.
"Elections are not a solution to the problems facing Bolivia," says
Oscar Olivera, a factory workers' leader in Cochabamba and a central
figure in the social movements that are clamouring for change.

Although Mr Morales is often portrayed as the creator and director of
street mobilisation, he has often had to run to catch up. On gas, for
example, he originally demanded revenues be divided equally between
foreign investors and the state, only calling for nationalisation
after it became a central demand of mass protests.

Nationalisation of the gas sector - the second largest in the region
- - will be a critical test. The MAS lacks a detailed policy, but Mr
Morales has shunned expropriation, instead pledging to revise
contracts and talking of the need for "partners, not masters".

He would also face pressure from foreign investors such as Repsol,
British Gas and Total. They have already threatened to take the
country to court over a hydrocarbons law passed in May that imposed a
new 32 per cent tax at the wellhead. If Bolivia were to impose more
punitive measures, some companies would probably resort to
international arbitration.

The battle over a constituent assembly also promises to be fierce.
There are deep divisions over whether the body should have power only
over procedural issues or if it should also be able to decide
substantial matters such as economic policy.

Mr Morales began his political career as a coca-growers' leader, and
he has promised to decriminalise the cultivation of coca, which has
for centuries been used as a natural stimulant, but is also the raw
material for cocaine. This has put him at odds with Washington, the
largest bilateral donor, two-thirds of whose $150m (a,-127m, AUKP87m)
annual aid goes on eradicating the plantt..

A MAS government would also face an array of hostile domestic forces.
The wealthy south-eastern province of Santa Cruz, where support for
Mr Morales is weak, is a natural enemy. Mr Quiroga's supporters are
likely to control the Senate, and most of the new departmental
prefects will be opponents of the MAS.

But ultimately, a Morales administration could be brought down by
failing to satisfy its supporters. Asked how long the social
movements would grant Mr Morales to nationalise the gas industry, Mr
Olivera is unequivocal: "We will give him one day.