KILLINGS CAST PALL ON MEXICO DRUG PLAN

Calderon's Strategy of Using Army Patrols Draws Fire as Juarez, a
Centerpiece of the Push, Turns Into a Murder Capital

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico--The gangland-style murders of three people
with ties to the U.S. consulate in this border city have confirmed
for many people what residents here already knew: President Felipe
Calderon's strategy of sending in the troops to corral drug gangs has failed.

The gritty working-class city of 1.5 million has become a litmus test
for Mr. Calderon's antidrug strategy and, by extension, his
presidency. The conservative leader took power vowing to bring
cartels to heel, and chose Mexico's army rather than local police to
do the job, sending 45,000 troops to various hot spots, including
7,000 to Juarez.

But violence has skyrocketed in Juarez, an assembly center for export
goods that never escaped its roots as a border playground for
Americans. It has suffered a disproportionate amount of the mayhem,
accounting for 5,349 out of more than 18,000 drug-related murders
across Mexico since Mr. Calderon took power in December 2006.

"It's a complete failure," Oscar Cantu, publisher of local newspaper
El Norte, says of Mr. Calderon's enforcement strategy.

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, while praising
Mr. Calderon's antidrug efforts, said this week the military
deployment "hasn't helped."

On Tuesday, Mr. Calderon visited the city, just days after an
American couple, including a woman who was four months pregnant and
worked at the U.S. consulate, were killed in broad daylight.
Separately, another man married to a consulate worker was killed.

The president told residents he regretted the "cowardly" murders and
that the fight for Juarez was crucial to Mexico's future. Mr.
Calderon resisted calls by some protesters to pull out the army,
saying "I don't think that's going to help Juarez's security problem."

The president's top aides tacitly acknowledge that the army strategy
hasn't worked. Officials say they will try two new approaches: a
greater focus on intelligence work, and an effort to create jobs,
build schools, open parks and counsel drug addicts.

On March 23, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will lead a top-level
delegation to Mexico, including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates,
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Director of National
Intelligence Dennis Blair, to discuss efforts against drug cartels,
Reuters reported State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley as saying Wednesday.

Juarez, considered the world's murder capital, is caught in a turf
war between two Mexican drug gangs fighting to control smuggling
rights to the giant U.S. market. The violence scares away investment
needed to reduce poverty and undercut drug gangs. The local
manufacturers' trade group estimates nearly $1 billion in potential
investment has been lost over the past two years due to the insecurity.

Amid a wave of extortions, many city businesses have shut their
doors. Many families with the means have fled across the border to El
Paso, Texas.

On the day the Americans were murdered, six other people were killed
here in drug-related hits, according to local newspaper reports. A
typical incident: A man identified only as Nicolas was riding a
bicycle on a boulevard at 8 p.m. when he was chased by gunmen in a
car. He tried to hide but was gunned down. The car drove off.

Part of the problem is that the military doesn't have the training
for intelligence work or counterinsurgency operations that could help
turn the tide in Juarez, experts say. Until now, the troops' main
function has been to patrol Juarez and other cities. Most troops
rotate out after two-month assignments.

"This was an improvised strategy that wasn't thought through," says
Arturo Yanez, a former federal antidrug official. Mr. Calderon hasn't
wanted to use Mexico's local cops, which are widely perceived as
corrupt. The army serves as a stopgap while new federal police forces
are trained. Mr. Yanez says that money and training should flow not
to the army but toward local prosecutors and cops. Local police still
aren't allowed to investigate organized crime. "We aren't doing
enough to support the guys on the ground who can get the best
intelligence," he says.

Other experts say Mexico's army of conscripts could develop
intelligence capacity if it got more direct training from the U.S.
military. The U.S. has pledged about $400 million a year in antidrug
aid to Mexico, though much of the money is for hardware such as
helicopters and hasn't yet been disbursed.

"A related lesson from Colombia's experience is that if government
forces have the technology and training, they can get ahead of these
violent organizations," says Jay Cope, a fellow at the National
Defense University and a retired U.S. Army Colonel.

Mexico, however, is reluctant to ask for increased training. Soon
after the U.S. government said the FBI would help Mexico investigate
the recent killings of the Americans, several Mexican senators
complained about a violation of "sovereignty."